Britain’s best-selling financial magazine ‘breaks rank’ to give you this urgent warning...
INVESTMENT WARNING:
Get out of this “Suckers’ Rally” NOW!
Read on to discover...
Four ‘Wealth Assaults’ set to ravage your savings and investments between now and June 30, 2010
Four ‘last resort’ money protection moves you need to make immediately. And,
Two ways to bank potential gains of between 545% and 936% from the final, most dangerous phase of the global financial crisis...
Dear Reader,
Last December Gordon Brown proudly told the House of Commons “we have saved the world”.
It was a slip of the tongue, of course.
He meant “banks”.
But his attempt to correct the mistake was drowned out by Tory laughter.
And they were right to laugh...
Gordon Brown’s £500bn rescue plan – and the similar one implemented in America - has not “saved the world”. It hasn’t even saved the banks.
It’s actually done the exact opposite: created a “suckers rally” that’s lured UK savers and investors into even greater danger.
I write today to ensure YOU are not one of them.
In the pages that follow, you’ll get advance warning of four ‘wealth assaults’ we believe will take Britons completely off-guard in the months to come.
- The price of your house to HALVE between now and July 29, 2010. There are 5 rock-solid reasons why the property ‘mini-bounce’ is weeks – perhaps days – away from a dramatic reversal.
- ‘Fed Model’ alarm system warns: “Stock Sell-Off Imminent!” The Fed Model accurately picked the 1987 and 2001 crashes. It issued a clear SELL signal on European equities in June and July 2007, well before the market finally cracked. It called the rebound at the start of the year... and now the warning siren is ringing again!
- The final ‘knock-out’ blow for UK banks. I’ll explain why UK banks are in even more trouble than they were 12 months ago... what this means for you... and the lurking menace of financial meltdown across the Channel.
- The Great Wealth Destroyer! The Government calls its money printing rescue efforts “quantitative easing.” As you’ll soon see, a better label is “defrauding the few people who were smart enough to save”. The public will wake up in the final quarter of 2009...
That’s the bad news. Here’s the good...
Some of the country’s canniest market insiders are not panicking: they’re preparing.
I’ll show you – in detail – four simple protection moves you can put in place now to shield your wealth from what’s about to happen.
And it doesn’t end there.
I’m also going to give you TWO ways you could make a great deal of money in the next two years, even as the economy goes from bad to worse.
One is a ‘mania’ speculation that could return 545% within two years.
The second, we’re calling the single most promising trade of the next five years. It’s going to catch investors completely unawares. And there is a 936% potential gain on the table for you if it pays off.
But first...
Wealth Assault #1
UK Property to HALVE Between Now and July 29, 2010
"It seems the worst is behind us," says Nicholas Leeming of Propertyfinder.com. "Confidence in the housing market is at its highest since the credit crunch began."
Don’t buy into the property rally, reader.
It’s for SUCKERS.
You have a right to be skeptical.
Nationwide reported that May house prices rose by 1.2%. Halifax claimed a rise of 2.6% for the same month.
The Bank of England confirmed that new mortgage approvals (often a good forward indicator) climbed 8% during April to 43,201, their highest level for almost a year.
So do the property optimists seem to have a point?
In a word: NO.
Dig below the surface, and the outlook is far worse than most in the mainstream press are willing to let on.
There are five rock-solid reasons why we think residential property will halve between now and July 29, 2010:
- Banks are terrified of lending. Home loan conditions are still very tight – two-thirds of all current mortgage offers require a 25% deposit. And they aren't showing any sign of easing up. Gross mortgage lending was down 52% year-on-year in April, while net lending reached its lowest for eight years, says the British Bankers' Association.
- Mortgage approvals are still 22% down on April 2008 and 60% below their 'pre-correction' levels. That's a long way off the 80,000 level that has historically been consistent with stable house prices, let alone values rising again.
- The rising cost of borrowing will EXTINGUISH any signs of recovery. If you’re taking solace in low interest rates, you better think again. Homebuyers are about to face their first mortgage rate rise this year. Nationwide has upped the cost of its fixed-rate deals by up to 0.86%, and state-owned Northern Rock has raised its five-year fixed rates by 0.2%.
Ray Boulger at mortgage broker John Charcol says most, and possibly all, of the part-nationalised Lloyds Banking Group – which includes Halifax, Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and Cheltenham & Gloucester – will increase their fixed rates, "in some cases by quite large amounts".
"Any material rise in government funding costs will have a knock-on effect on secured borrowing, putting significant pressure on households," says RBC Capital Markets' John Wraith. "This could have a serious impact on any UK economic recovery." - UK property is still MASSIVELY unaffordable. Do you really think that house prices have dropped to a reasonable and fair level? From 1983 to 2001, the ratio of mortgage advances to earnings remained within a range of two to 2.5 times. By 2007, it had risen to above four times. Although affordability has improved a bit in the last year, it remains stretched.
According to John Bell of Shore Capital: “If real [inflation adjusted] wages fall, affordability may not be restored for the best part of a decade."
And real incomes are falling. UK average weekly earnings fell 3% year-on-year in March. During past downturns in Britain, Japan and the Nordic countries gains made during the bubble periods were entirely lost in real terms.
If history repeats itself, Bell predicts "house prices could more than halve from here". - UK’s own ‘sub prime’ crisis is about to explode. Almost a third of British non-conforming mortgages – where borrowers with weak credit scores were given loans on the back of minimal, or no, documentation – taken out in 2005 are now 90 or more days behind on their payments.
These are our ‘sub prime’ mortgages.
According to David Watts at CreditSights these are "alarming numbers, uglier than expected". It could all add up to another surge in repossessions, and more houses hitting the market when it's least able to absorb them.
10% unemployment will make rising house prices a virtual impossibility
"Unemployment is predicted to soar from its current 7% to over 10%", says George Hay on Breakingviews.
That’s perhaps the worst news of all for property prices.
When dole queues lengthen, home values fall.
Fewer people in work means lower disposable income available to make mortgage repayments. That both cuts the number of new buyers and increases the supply of forced sellers who can't meet their existing home loan bills. Sadly, it also raises the level of repossessions.
Just take a look at the chart below to see how unemployment and house prices tend to be inversely correlated. As you can see, as unemployment rises, house prices fall...
According to John Philpott, Chief Economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development UK unemployment will peak at 3.2 million in July 29, 2010 – the end of the second financial quarter.
This is around the time we should see a bottom in house prices.
To repeat: this brief rally in house prices cannot last.
If you want to profit in the next 24 months, get out of the property market.
(You can read our future analysis of unfolding events by trying FOUR FREE ISSUES of MoneyWeek. Click here.)
First, I need to give you advance warning of:
Wealth Assault #2
A Second, Even Bigger Stock Sell-Off Inside 2 Months
"The bulls are in control," says Vito Racinelli in Barron's.
“The panic is over!” declares Forbes...
“Buyers are shopping for stock bargains... we believe the panic is over and a V-shaped economic recovery is under way.
“It is in its earliest stages, which means plenty of economic indicators have yet to turn positive, but the signs of a strong bounce off the panic-induced lows are all around us.”
Optimism that the worst is over and growth could soon rebound has driven the FTSE 100 up 28% this year.
Investors – private and institutional – have bought into economic recovery and cheap valuations.
The earnings picture, it seems, is not an issue.
At MoneyWeek, we believe earnings are very much an issue.
In other words:
Don’t buy into this rally either, reader.
You need to take important actions to protect your stock portfolio as soon as possible.
I’ll get to those shortly.
First you need to know about the screaming warning signal that’s flashing as you read this...
The ‘Fed Model’ says SELL
Just six months ago this signal flagged up a major opportunity to get into shares.
Now that same indicator says stocks are overvalued.
It’s time to get bearish on the stock market.
This indicator is called the ‘Fed Model’.
It shows the relative value between stocks and bonds and has slipped from bullish on stocks to neutral.
It gave its most bullish reading in modern history in January, ahead of the recent rally, but has slipped back with frightening pace.
We know this by calculating the FTSE 100’s earnings yield (earnings per share divided by the share price) and comparing it with the yield (what you get as a dividend) on 10-year government bonds.
The idea is that you should buy stocks when the yield is significantly above the yield on risk-free bonds.
Right now, it’s NOT.
And this is an indicator with a very good track record...
- The Fed Model sent a clear SELL signal on European equities in June and July 2007, well before the market finally cracked.
- Of course, the Fed Model’s most famous calls were in the 1987 and 2001 market crashes. Both times this model called the top of the market, according to data from ING Research.
The prevailing opinion here at MoneyWeek is that markets have reached some kind of inflection point. (Try four free issues by clicking here.)
Right across the board, markets - be they equities, commodities or currencies - seem at an obvious place to make a turn.
Make no mistake: a correction is coming.
In fact it may happen any day now...
What to do before rally turns to crash
Absolute Strategy Research is already warning its clients of the potential risk: “We suspect that the biggest risk for equity investors is likely to come from rising bond yields rather than rising PE multiples.”
And Credit Suisse is not far behind, saying “the rise in bond yields has undermined the valuation of equities.”
The Fed Model could prove, again, to be the canary in the coal mine.
-- Robert Quinn of S&P
That means it’s time to consider selling some of those winners or at least putting your best performing shares on a very tight leash.
One way to do that is by placing stop-loss orders on winning shares.
That way, if they do fall back, as we believe they will, you can lock in profits into your portfolios.
Now’s the time to do this.
In 2009 so far, UK general retailers have outperformed the overall market by a third, while housebuilders have beaten the index by 25%. Even Britain's bank shares have done better than the FTSE All-Share by 3%.
If you own stocks in those sectors, you’ll want to consider selling immediately.
In just a moment, I’ll introduce you to the ONLY small group of stocks worth buying and owning in the months ahead.
But right now, I should introduce myself.
My name is Toby Bray. I’m publisher of MoneyWeek magazine.
We’ve seen a lot since the magazine’s inception 9 years ago.
MoneyWeek prophetically told its readers to buy oil when it was $23 a barrel. We tipped specific gold and silver stocks 3 years before the City even mentioned them. And MoneyWeek pushed investing in China and India long before leading fund managers.
We’ve been calling for a crunch in global credit markets since 2004. But even MoneyWeek’s analysts have been taken aback by the scale and speed at which things unraveled at the end of last year.
I’m writing today because worse is to come...
“Forewarned is better.”
James Grant is right.
It is better to anticipate risks than to ignore them.
Seems like a pretty straightforward rule. But caution is almost never popular. Investors brag about the money they made, NOT about the money they avoided losing.
Frankly, the mood right now among the investment mainstream is frightening.
On June 6, Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein - senior American economists at First Trust Advisors – stated in Forbes:
“The stock market should rise back to its pre-panic levels. It took seven months for the Dow to fall from 11,000 to 6,500, and it is very possible that it could go back to 11,000 in another seven months.”
That kind of move would be unprecedented in history.
-- Tony Le Grange, Southampton
What planet are they on!
And yet it’s the same party line in pretty much every investment bank and broker on the planet.
But we at MoneyWeek think caution is valuable – especially the kind of informed caution that saves your skin when everyone else is losing theirs...
Informed caution is our specialty... and those who have faithfully read our pages over the years could testify that forewarned is, indeed, better... much, much better.
If you’d like to try three issues – free of charge – simply click on this link.
But it’s also critical you prepare for...
Wealth Assault #3
The ‘Knock-Out’ Punch for UK Banks
If you believe most of the press, then the financial crisis is over.
Your bank is solvent.
Your savings are safe.
Bank stocks are a screaming buy.
The FTSE 350 Bank Index has nearly doubled in four months.
-- Wolfgang Munchau,
The Financial Times
As you read this, the fuse for the ‘secondary detonation’ in the UK banking sector is being lit across the Channel. Europe is drowning. Its banks are swamped with debt that will likely never be paid. But this isn’t debt incurred by people who took out dodgy US sub-prime mortgages...
These loans belong to whole countries in Eastern Europe. Countries which – as you read this – are on the brink of economic collapse.
Bank exposures to Eastern Europe will define the next wave of the global financial crisis - a wave that could be even more devastating than the US sub-prime collapse which kicked off this whole mess to start with.
Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, says Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad. I’ll put this debt into perspective... America’s total losses on subprime loans and securities are estimated at $400bn.
In other words, this is four times worse than subprime!
The IMF says that to recapitalise the banks of the eurozone back to levels of the mid-1990s, capital injections of $275bn are needed in America. In Europe, that figure is a massive $500bn.
Europe is heading for a Depression. It could easily take Britain – and the rest of the world – down with it. Without a healthy Europe, much of our world trade would vanish. The UK sells 57% of its exports to Europe. Our next biggest export partner is the United States... at 17%.
Make no mistake...
Europe’s bad loan blow-out is about to land on YOUR doorstep.
To find out how to protect yourself from the fallout of Europe’s financial collapse, try four FREE issues of MoneyWeek by clicking here.
Crispin Odey, one of the hedge fund managers who made a mint betting against the banks before and during the credit crunch, has now made another mint by buying them.
His Odey European fund returned 30% in April alone. "I think this is the start of a long bull market," he says.
Don’t buy this talk, reader.
The UK banking sector is quite possibly in worse condition than a year ago.
The UK Treasury says it won't be releasing details of the “stress” tests performed on Britain's lenders because they "may lead to uncertainty in financial markets... which could require further action by the authorities".
Translation:UK banks are in deep trouble. And the Government would prefer YOU didn’t know. . .
Recently both Barclays and Lloyds spilled the beans about the state of their loan books.
It wasn't pretty.
Despite all the cheery chat about more loans becoming available, gross mortgage lending in April totaled £1.55 billion, down sharply from £3.92 billion a year earlier, according to data released by the Building Societies' Association.
In March consumer credit lending fell 2%, compared to a near-9% annualised increase for the year before.
Borrowers are defaulting in droves, leaving the banks with no choice but to batten down the hatches.
Barclays has hiked its "impairment charges" - loan write-offs - by almost 80% in this year's first quarter.
Overall 2009 loan losses are set to jump 50% on last year.
Lloyds revealed that corporate bad loans are rising "significantly" and could also rise by 50% this year.
And just to compound the misery, today Royal Bank of Scotland (another of our newly “nationalized” banks) admits that first quarter bad debts have quadrupled.
With the dole queues lengthening fast and house prices falling, it’s no surprise, right?
Taking all this into account, it’s clear we’ve barely seen the start of this banking crisis.
So what does that mean for you?
First and foremost, if you still hold bank stocks – or have been lured back into them – now is the time to SELL.
Barclays is up more than four-fold in two months.
Lloyds and RBS are 130% higher.
"The market's got ahead of itself with the domestic banks", says Leigh Goodwin at Fox-Pitt Kelton. "When you look at the impairments, particularly on commercial loan books, this is a bit of a reality check".
Take profits, reader – if you’re in the position to do so.
And you might want to reconsider keeping any cash at all in a bank account in the year ahead.
Especially when you consider the final warning I have for you today...
Wealth Assault #4
The ‘Great Wealth Destroyer’
In February the Bank of England and HM Treasury agreed to a £150 billion injection of new money into the economy.
All this is designed to kick start the economy and to get people spending.
“The perfect storm is ahead for massive inflation to begin in the second half of 2009... hyperinflation during the next decade is becoming less the worst case scenario and more the most likely scenario.”
The National Inflation Association
“I do not want to own any US dollars. Also, I would not urge you to buy US dollars. (The) dollar is going to lose its status as world reserve currency.” Legendary investor Jim Rogers
“Throwing money at the problem and propping up the greedy banks that created the speculation is like trying to put out a fire by pouring gasoline on it. The result will be an even bigger, more searing fire.”
Jim Walker, Asianomics
"If the stock market recovers in the second half of 2009 - ahead of an economic recovery - the rise in share prices in a low interest-rate environment could spark hyperinflation."
Currency expert Wayne McDonell
“...the stimulus programs will only prolong and worsen the credit excesses, and the massive deficits and reckless expansion of the money supply will unleash hyperinflation, a more painful and socially dangerous threat. Think of Germany's hyperinflation experience in the 1920s or more recently of Brazil's or Zimbabwe's.”
Barton Biggs in Newsweek
But Weimar Germany – in the 1920’s - is a stark example of where this tactic can lead to.
During WWI, Germany began printing loads of money that had no backing of economic resources. The plan was simply to pay back the loans with the spoils of war: annexations of industrial areas and tributes from the defeated.
As you know, things didn’t quite go to plan...
When Germany surrendered, the costs were staggering: vast national debt, forced Versailles reparations (in gold), loss of major industrial areas to France, a stunted domestic market, war veterans’ disabilities and more.
And there was more...
The new democratic socialist government came to power by promising the German people higher wages, better healthcare, shorter work week, better education and a new welfare system.
And where would the money come from for all this?
Answer: The printing presses!
A bull market in bank notes
By late 1923, 300 paper mills were working 24/7 and 150 printing companies had 2000 presses going day and night turning out currency.
In 1914, one US dollar could be bought with about four marks.
By 1923, it was ONE TRILLION marks to the dollar.
Most Germans were completely unprepared.
People raced to spend their wheelbarrow-loads of wages before prices went up... Shoes were traded for shirts, crockery for cornflour... Households started frantically converting savings into real goods. Pianos, wrote the British historian Adam Fergusson, were bought even by unmusical families.
You could order a cup of coffee at a cafe for 10,000 marks, and the bill would be 12,000 when you left.
Remember...
Five years earlier this was the most advanced nation on the planet.
You can understand why many Germans today are nervous as banks and businesses are bailed out with printed money worldwide.
They know that – however hard hyperinflation is to imagine now – it can happen with frightening speed.
But this couldn’t happen here, today, in Britain... surely?
Maybe not hyperinflation.
But dismissing the threat of massive inflation in the next 24 months could be one of the worst mistakes you ever make.
Read on and I’ll show you why...
"There is no subtler, no surer way of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency."
Here’s the thing...
-- Simon Bradley, Bournville, Birmingham
There are very worrying similarities between the massive inflation I believe is about to engulf Britain and 1920’s Germany.
There is no Treaty of Versailles and no reparation payments. But in their place, there is a vast expansion of debt – both private and public - over the last three decades.
Britons have borrowed far more money than they can ever hope to repay. Much of this debt is tied to residential real estate, but there are also record amounts of credit-card, commercial real estate, and public debt.
Now the credit bubble has popped. $50 TRILLION has been wiped from asset values worldwide, according to the Asian Development bank.
And governments the world over are trying to re-inflate this bubble – with more debt!
See, the Bank of England now has no room to move. Interest rates are at 0.5%. They pretty much can’t get any lower.
Now it’s all about how much money the Bank is prepared to print...
- When the Bank met in May, it dropped a bombshell: it would pump another £50bn into the bond markets. (That’s essentially printing money).
- The UK Treasury is already forecasting annual public deficits at their largest since records began in the 1960s. It will be £1.1trn in the hole within five years. Most analysts fear even these dire predictions are far too conservative. April's government spending shortfall was the highest-ever - four times last year's.
- As such, Britain is now on the verge of the once-unthinkable: losing its top-notch, triple-A credit rating for the first time. Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) has cut its UK outlook from "stable" to "negative", warning there's a one in three chance it will cut Britain's rating.
- And this is hardly just a British problem. In the US, the fast-rising public debt mountain has now reached $11.3trn... climbing by a further $1.85trn in 2009 and $1.4trn in 2010.
Those who think we’re heading for a Japan-style deflationary scenario may beg to differ.
But on the evidence so far, it's looking increasingly likely that our policy makers’ desperate and relentless bailouts and buy-ups will lead the other way.
As fund manager Peter Schiff says:
“This is pure inflation, Latin American style. This is hyperinflation. This is Zimbabwe. This is the identical monetary policy, this is what the Weimar Republic did and we’re going to have the same result.”
Frankly, you have no choice in the matter…
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You see, it is the express wish of the government that we have a return of inflation. It’s what ‘quantitative easing’ is specifically designed to create.
They are recapitalising the banks, cutting interest rates, putting spending money into the hands of pension fund managers by buying their bonds, giving £2,000 to consumers to go and buy cars AND helping the same poor consumers buy a house through the HomeBuy scheme.
It’s all inflation-stoking and the real question is when, not if, it will take hold.
So...
What should you be doing about it RIGHT NOW?
I want to be completely frank with you...
At MoneyWeek our primary goal is to inform you of the best places you can invest your capital.
Right now, this is an EXTREMELY difficult job!
We’re not like mainstream financial media outlets.
Unlike fund managers, we’re not obligated to promote certain assets, stocks or sectors. Unlike brokers, we don’t get a commission by railroading you into investment vehicles.
We tell it like it is - always. And right now – virtually across the board, we are VERY bearish...
On one side, you have a whole army of bankers, politicians, and economists fighting for a system based on debt and counterfeit money. On the other, there’s a legion of bad loans in investments created by the credit boom.
This crisis is NOT resolved.
The current rally has blinded most investors to this fact.
We feel there are precious few places to hide from the next stage in the financial crisis.
But good investors don’t sit in a state of paralysis during times of market upheaval.
So, below, I’ll share our three ways to protect your wealth in the next 12 months. Starting with, first and foremost...
Money Protection Move #1
Consider banking any stock gains you’ve made this year
As you’ve seen, we believe this current rally in stocks is going to end.
This does NOT mean you should liquidate your entire stock portfolio.
What it does mean is you should 1) be much more careful about the stocks you buy in the next 6 months and 2) take a good, long look at your existing portfolio.
As previously mentioned, this might simply entail placing stop losses on positions that are up this year: meaning you still exit in profit in the event of another mass sell-off.
You could also consider selling half of a position, leaving the rest ‘in play’.
Pretty soon, we believe, sentiment will turn...
These bearish sentiments will filter right through the market and investors will start to sell their stocks.
That means it’s time to consider selling some of those winners or at least putting your best performing shares on a very tight leash with a stop loss order.
But here’s an even more urgent move you should consider...
Money Protection Move #2
Buy defensives and ‘bear market protectors’
The FTSE 100 is Europe's ‘tail-end Charlie’.
Since markets troughed in March, it has lagged all its major European counterparts.
Why?
Because the FTSE has a greater weighting of defensive companies – those that are seen as largely immune to the economic cycle. A third of FTSE 100 stocks are defensive.
That’s hurt the FTSE, because cyclical stocks have had a blinder of a year.
Neil Woodford of Invesco Perpetual describes the share price rises of cyclicals as nothing short of "astonishing" – especially given that there's been "no tangible sign of any improvement in profitability for many months now".
Meanwhile, investors have "really taken against" defensive sectors. Most investors are clearly betting on a V-shaped recovery. At MoneyWeek, we believe that makes defensive stocks a raging BUY.
Think again about the four obstacles we believe this economy will face in the next 24 months.
Sooner or later defensive firms' resilience to a struggling economy will be priced into their share prices.
On June 11 we gave MoneyWeek readers our three best defensive stock picks on the FTSE right now. We’ll be looking more closely at this sector over the next two months. To get our recommendations and analysis, take a free trial by clicking here.
But it’s not just purely defensive stocks you should be looking at acquiring...
Get the right dividend payers into your portfolio now
Dividend-paying stocks have had an unusually hard time since they fell out of fashion in the dotcom years because the emphasis was on capital gains from risky, fast-growing technology firms.
But recently, investors have rediscovered the appeal of dividend cheques. This is for two reasons:
- Dividends can’t be fudged – they have to be paid with real money. And, with markets so volatile, jobs on the line and interest rates at historic lows… real money is important to investors.
- Dividend-payers are excellent stocks to own in recession. Dividends contribute to share-price stability. If the share price of a dividend-paying firm falls, it is likely to fall less sharply than a pure growth stock. That’s because once the price falls a certain distance, the yield tends to pick up, encouraging investors back in.
There is a problem, though.
Not every stock that pays a dividend is worth owning.
And - especially in this unprecedented financial crisis – not every dividend payment is guaranteed.
In the States, for instance, 5% of quoted companies cut their dividend payments in 2009's first quarter, says Standard & Poors.
When looking for real gems that will earn you money in the tough times ahead, it’s essential that you measure ‘dividend risk’.
You need to weed out the dependable payers from the companies that are likely to slash payouts due to debt and diminished demand.
Our experts are working on finding these companies right now.
To get their recommendations, why not try four free issues of MoneyWeek by clicking here?
Money Protection Move #3
DON’T GO NEAR BANK BONDS!
Back in December 2008, we warned investors about owning Bradford & Bingley (B&B) bank bonds.
And just as well.
Recently B&B made British banking history.
It became the first issuer ever to defer interest payments on its permanent interest-bearing bonds (Pibs).
These bonds were issued while B&B was still a building society. About 1,600 retail investors hold them.
The group has now warned it won't pay the interest due on these on 20 July; the next payment – due in October – is under threat too.
The bad news for holders of B&B bonds is that the government is under no obligation ever to repay a penny of the invested capital.
The bonds in question are permanent, which means there's no fixed date at which the issuer needs to repay the debt. Instead, investors have to try and sell in the open market.
But who will want to buy your bonds if the prospects of future interest payments remain cloudy?
The Daily Telegraph cites that one investor who bought £18,000 of B&B bonds in 1998 and now reckons his holding is worth around £3,100 – assuming anyone will buy it.
The risk is this will spread to all bonds offered by UK banks.
And as Simon Adamson of CreditInsight tells Bloomberg, the B&B interest deferral "raises more questions about what might happen to hybrid and other subordinated debt at other banks the government owns or might end up owning".
Unless you’re prepared to lose money, steer clear of bank bonds till this financial crisis is well-and-truly over.
And if you’re going to take just ONE protective measure away from this report, make it this...
Money Protection Move #4
Ready yourself – and your wealth – for MASSIVE INFLATION
We think inflation is coming.
As you’ve seen, we’re not alone.
Your financial survival will depend on pinpoint perfect asset allocation.
Here’s an idea of how asset classes fared during the German hyperinflation:
- Cash became almost completely worthless. Of all investments, cash is the worst in this environment. Those who held onto their cash too long soon found themselves burning it for warmth.
- Bank savings were no better. Bank deposits became as worthless as cash. However, after the stabilization the government decreed partial reimbursement, and sums in the range of 15-30% of the original deposit value were repaid. Don’t bet on that happening this time around. Today, banks ARE the problem. In any case, few Germans held money in deposits through the entire period.
- Property was a good place to be if you had a mortgage. This might fly in the face of what we’ve said previously about the weak UK property market. What you need to realise is that we’re saying property may halve within 12 months. The worst of the inflation storm will come after that.
In Germany, inflation pretty much wiped out everyone’s mortgage debt. But don’t get too carried away here...
After the German economy’s recovery, heavy new taxes and the urgent need for cash forced most holders to remortgage their property, often more heavily than originally. In other words, their gains were an illusion. Many Germans were forced into selling property to raise cash. Rents were frozen by the Government, so landlords lost their income virtually overnight. - Suddenly, “things” were almost as precious as gold. People preserved wealth buy converting cash into things with lasting value – rare coins, stamps, jewellery, furniture and works of art. Even standard items like clothing or kitchenware became valuable wealth-preserving assets.
- And what about stocks? Between January 1918 and November 1923, one German stock index share went from 126 to 23,680,000 million marks. Fantastic for stock investors, right? However... if you measure the German stock market during this period in US Dollars (at that time backed in gold)... the gain of 187,936 million times in marks amounted to a 60% loss in US dollars. Equities are a better place for your capital than cash itself during hyperinflation. But not that much better.
Listen...
The ONLY Germans who held onto their wealth were the tiny minority who had the foresight to exchange marks for gold and ‘safe currencies’
And they did this very early on - before new laws made it difficult and before the mark had depreciated too much.
And that brings me to the bumper profit opportunity I want to tell you about...
Bumper Profit Play #1
A one-time chance to make 545% from ‘real money’
“Money, money, money...the Fed is creating new money at the fastest pace in history. Gold guffaws...snorts...and chortles. It knows something, but it isn't talking.”
- Bill Bonner
Even if you’ve never considered gold as an investment option before, NOW is the time to load up on the yellow metal.
At the time of writing, gold trades for less than US $1,000 an ounce.
We believe it should reach $2,500. Some analysts are picking $6,000 an ounce by the time this financial crisis has played out.
That’s a 545% gain on today’s price.
So why do we think gold is set to climb?
Gold is the only form of money that hasn’t been poisoned by the credit crunch. Confidence in currencies is about to be decimated. When that happens, the yellow metal will usurp paper money’s role of the most trusted currency.
American Senator Ron Paul puts it perfectly:
“Holding physical gold can defend against aggressive government monetary policies that threaten to inflate away the value of your life savings.
“During the hyperinflation in post WWI Germany, what used to be a comfortable nest egg was suddenly the value of a postage stamp. If one held just a portion of their savings in precious metals, the crisis was greatly softened.”
We believe gold is on the cusp of a ‘mania’ phase.
And the rush to buy gold – and anything remotely linked to gold – will be an awe-inspiring sight to behold.
How far could this bull market go?
“Another Great Gold Rally could touch $6,000+ per ounce.”
$6,000+
"A gold bubble, which will probably ultimately happen as a way to climax the coming gold mania maybe five to seven years out, could easily launch gold above $5000 per ounce. The actual top of a new gold bubble at the final pinnacle of another Great Gold Rally could touch $6000+ per ounce.”
Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence
$3,500 by 2010
"Gold is likely to more than triple from the current level to $3,500 in 2010... The US is facing a deflationary collapse more severe than the crash that hobbled Japan’s economy in the 1990s, leaving gold as the only defensive play for investors."
Christopher Wood, Equity Strategist
$3,000
"As governments print more money to pull the global economy out of a recession, gold may spike to $3,000 a troy ounce as a result."
Hans Goetti, CIO, LGT Bank in Liechtenstein
$2,960
"We forecast gold at a minimum price of $2,960 with a probability of much higher prices... Gold is the only real money in the world and its rally has barely begun.”
Roger Weigund, Trader Tracks
In these unprecedented times, it’s hard to guess. Take a look to the right, though, and you’ll get the estimates of the industry’s most influential insiders.
So what’s the best way to gain gold exposure?
In the months to come, we’ll be advising readers on the cheapest ways to buy physical gold.
If you try four free issues, you’ll also hear about the best gold ETFs trading on the market right now.
But the real profit opportunity is the coming months will be GOLD STOCKS.
"If the gold price continues to rise, taking sentiment with it, we expect to see the juniors start to raise money," analyst Andrew Muir says.
We concur. Again, if you’d like to get our next gold stock picks, click HERE.
In summary: if you don’t own gold already, buy some.
If you do, BUY MORE.
But there’s another, potentially even greater profit play I want you to know about...
Bumper Profit Play #2
The single most profitable trade of the next five years
Everyone seems transfixed by this financial crisis.
So much so, that many are ignoring something else very important that’s happening in the markets.
It could quite easily be the single most profitable trade in the next five years.
But only for investors who get in now.
I can’t explain now because, at present, this silent trend is current getting pretty much ZERO coverage in the mainstream media. We’d rather not let the cat out of the bag while our readers still have a chance to get in on the basement floor.
But in short:
The current, cataclysmic slowdown in global economic growth is about to have a rather dramatic ‘side-effect’.
It’s probably not going to manifest itself until the first quarter of 2010 – at the earliest – but when it does investors who cotton on NOW will make an absolute KILLING.
See, the price of one down-in-the-dumps asset is about to go ballistic.
Goldman Sachs predicts this price spike with be “swift” and “violent”.
We believe there are potential gains of up to 936% on the table for you – in the space of just two years or less.
So what is this hidden “trade of the decade”?
You’ll be pleased to hear I’ve compiled a special report for you – which you can download FOR FREE, as soon as you claim your four free issues of MoneyWeek.
You can get my full research on playing this trend for profits in the coming months by clicking here.
Read the facts, study the numbers and make your own mind up.
This is no time to sit back and see what happens…
You have two choices...
You can disregard what you’ve read in this report, continue on the same course and lose whatever gains you might have clawed back this year.
Or you can change direction... and take active steps to protect and grow your wealth over the next two years.
Because this much is clear:
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Taking the wrong actions – or no action at all – could place you in a financial position you may never recover from.
This crisis is not over, not by a long shot.
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Don’t go into the dangerous months ahead alone
There's never a good time for financial crisis.
But this one comes at the worst possible time – at the end of a 20-year ‘mega-bubble’ in easy credit... just as the largest group in history (Baby Boomers) prepares to leave their earning years behind.
A 30-40% wealth-loss could be catastrophic for your retirement plans.
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Kindest regards,

Toby Bray
Publisher
MoneyWeek
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